News of the Day

Pre-poll survey: Advantage NDA, but alliance could just fall short of majority

As the nation gears up for the first round of the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling BJP and its NDA seem to enjoy a distinct advantage over its opponents. The CSDS-Lokniti Pre Election Survey, indicates that the national mood appears to be to give the ruling party/alliance a second term.

Over the last one year, the ruling party appears to have overcome the emerging mood of anti-incumbency and turned the tide in its favour. Each region of the country appears to have its own trend and political direction. As things stand in the last week of March 2019, the NDA appears close to the majority mark, though the BJP itself seems well short of securing a majority on its own. One must however hasten to add, that there does not appear to be any national wave in favour of the ruling party.

The CSDS-Lokniti Pre Poll Survey shows that both the BJP and the Congress are likely to register a four percentage point increase in their vote share. However, in the case of the BJP, this rise, is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in its seat share.

In some key states of North and Central India, the party is likely to lose seats as it may find it difficult to achieve the high ‘strike rate’ it secured in 2014.

The SP-BSP combine in Uttar Pradesh is posing a stiff challenge to the BJP. If the current trends were to continue, the BJP is likely to lose a significant chunk of seats in this politically important state. While it may continue to do well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh, it is unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance here.

The BJP could well make up part of this deficit it suffers in North and Western India through marginal gains in the East and North East. Its tally in South is unlikely to see any visible improvement. The overall shortfall the party is likely to face, could well result in its partners within the NDA playing a crucial role in government formation after the elections.

Non-UPA parties

It is important to highlight that as things stand today, the projected rise in the NDA vote share appears to be at the cost of the non-UPA opposition. Ironically, among supporters of these non-UPA parties, the sentiment against NDA is not very strong. Close to one-third of non-UPA/non-BJP voters prefer not to take a stand on the question of the Modi government getting a second chance and just four of every ten are against giving the ruling party another opportunity.

Possibly, the supporters of the non UPA opposition see a limited opportunity of the parties they support coming to power and this is reflected in their stand on a second chance for the BJP. In any case, this opens possibilities for the BJP in States like West Bengal and Odisha.

If one were to undertake a region wise analysis, it is clear that the NDA appears to be doing extremely well in North, West and Central India. It is also catching up in the East and North East, though it is faring poorly in the South. While the NDA has made some gains in the South in the last one year, it has been unable to catch up with either the UPA or other regional parties in this region. South India is the only region where close to half the respondents (45%) believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Among social groups

The BJP seems to be ahead of its opponents on account of the support it enjoys among critical social groups. It retains its lead among both upper castes and the OBCs. While it gets more support among the upper and middle income groups, its support among the low income group and the poor is not insignificant.

Young voters (below the age of 25) seem to be more enthusiastic in their support for the BJP. The support for the ruling party declines with age and between the oldest and youngest age groups there is an eight percentage point difference.

The BJP, which a year ago appeared to have lost ground to the Congress in small towns and cities, appears to have made up the deficit and is now ahead of the Congress in villages, towns and both the small and large cities. The farmers, among whom support for the party had declined last year are once again rallying around the BJP.

Above all, besides the social arithmetic, it is political skills that would finally make and unmake the electoral fortunes of different parties. In this respect, a fascinating piece of data deserves mention: When asked about how determined they are to go and vote, three forth of those who support the NDA said they were ‘very likely’ to vote whereas only three fifths of the potential non-NDA voters appeared similarly determined.

Least enthusiastic

Muslims were the least enthusiastic to vote (four of every ten not sure of voting) and the Upper Castes were the most enthusiastic (seven of every ten saying that they would surely vote). In other words, NDA voters are more likely to turn out and vote and non-NDA voters are less likely to turnout to vote. It is clear that if the UPA and the non-UPA parties do not get their act together, the levels of eagerness among their supporters is not likely to increase as voting day approaches.

Incumbency factor

If the contest is between active pro-incumbency and passive anti-incumbency, that will surely benefit the BJP and its allies. BJP thus, enters the hotly contested election with a clear advantage in more senses than one.

Army gets first batch of Dhanush, home-made Bofors artillery guns, from OFB

The Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) on Monday handed over the first batch of six Dhanush artillery guns to the Army. Dhanush is the indigenously upgraded gun of the Swedish Bofors gun procured in the 1980s.

“Indigenisation to the extent of about 81%, has already been achieved. By the end of 2019, the indigenisation level of the gun will go up to 91%,” the Defence Ministry said in a statement. Six guns were handed over at a ceremony at Gun Carriage Factory, Jabalpur.

“The first Dhanush regiment with 18 guns is expected to be ready by the end of next year,” an Army source said. The GCF received the Bulk Production Clearance (BPC) to manufacture 114 guns from the Army on February 18, 2019.

Dhanush is a 155 mm, 45-calibre towed artillery gun with a range of 36 km and has demonstrated a range of 38 km with specialised ammunition. It is an upgrade of the existing 155m, 39 calibre Bofors FH 77 gun. It is compatible with all North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) 155 mm ammunition system.

Conducting of trials

The first phase of trials were conducted between July and September 2016 at Pokhran and Babina ranges and the second phase was held between October and December 2016 at the Siachen base camp with three guns. The last round of user exploitation trials were completed with six guns in June last year.

The gun is fitted with inertial navigation system with global positioning system- (GPS) based gun recording and auto-laying, an enhanced tactical computer for onboard ballistic computations, an onboard muzzle velocity recording, an automated gun sighting system equipped with camera, thermal imaging and laser range finder.

All 114 guns are expected to be delivered within four years. The OFB has already undertaken capacity augmentation to manufacture over 400 barrels and 250 ordnances for large calibre weapon systems. “The OFB is confident of producing 8-10 guns a month within two to three years,” an OFB official stated.

(Source – The Hindu)

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